Sunday, 2 December 2012

Final bowl projections [news]

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Final bowl projections[news], Six teams clinched an automatic bid to a BCS bowl between Thursday and Saturday: Alabama, Stanford, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Florida State and Louisville.

Of those six, Louisville is the only team whose BCS bid has yet to be made official. Due to the logjam of 5-2 teams atop the Big East, Louisville must wait until the final BCS rankings are released Sunday evening; the Big East champion will be the team with the highest ranking. Louisville entered this week ranked No. 26, and after beating No. 27 Rutgers should have no trouble taking home the Big East's BCS bid.

Alabama's going to play for it all after defeating Georgia in the SEC title game. Where does Georgia go? From within five yards of Miami on Jan. 7 to outside the BCS picture altogether. The Bulldogs will likely play in the Cotton Bowl.

Stanford and Wisconsin clinched BCS berths against UCLA and Nebraska, respectively - one by a field goal, one by 13 field goals (39 points). Kansas State's win over Texas gave the Wildcats the Big 12 title, thanks to their head-to-head tiebreaker against Oklahoma.

Florida State sewed up the ACC crown in a sloppy 21-15 win over 6-7 Georgia Tech. Much of the BCS dance card has already been punched. How many spots are left after the automatic bids are spoken for? Just three: one in the Fiesta and either two in the Sugar or one in the Sugar and one in the Orange. The Sugar Bowl will have at least one spot open because the SEC winner, Alabama, will play in the BCS championship game.

Let's fill in the rest of the blanks. Who's going where? With the standings set to be released on Sunday, here are our final BCS bowl projections.

BCS National Championship Game: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

The Irish were in last Saturday, when they clinched a 12-0 season by beating USC. Alabama is No. 2 after squeezing past Georgia 32-28. We knew heading into the SEC title game that the winner would meet Notre Dame.

Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Wisconsin

We're no longer surprised when Stanford reaches a BCS bowl. Nor should anyone be surprised when Wisconsin heads to Pasadena in January. While the Rose Bowl might have preferred Nebraska, the Badgers always put on a good show.

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Oregon

At one point in November, this was your national championship game. Instead, this will be the premier bowl game of the season outside Notre Dame and Alabama. Can Kansas State's defense keep pace with the Ducks?

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Louisville

Since the Sugar Bowl can't get Alabama, the SEC champs, it'll opt for the next-best thing in 11-1 Florida. The Gators will face Louisville, so we'll get to see former Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong go up against his former team.

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Northern Illinois

This all hinges on one factor: Northern Illinois' ranking in the human polls. More specifically, the Huskies' BCS chances depend on how far Nebraska plummets after Saturday's loss to Wisconsin.

Consider last week's BCS standings. NIU was No. 21. A win over No. 17 Kent State should move NIU ahead of No. 20 Boise State (which beat Nevada) and No. 19 Michigan (which was idle). No. 18 Texas lost. Kent State lost, obviously. No. 16 UCLA lost to Stanford.

Nebraska was No. 12 before giving up 70 points to Wisconsin. If enough voters knock Nebraska below NIU in the polls, the Huskies could get enough of a boost to move up to No. 16 in the final standings. If NIU is No. 16, it would earn an automatic at-large BCS bid because it has a higher ranking than the winner of an automatically qualifying conference (either Wisconsin or Louisville). Make sense?

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